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Lecture: Can Probabilistic Knowledge Help Knowledge-First Epistemology?

Department of Philosophy, FHS CU cordially invite you to a lecture "Can Probabilistic Knowledge Help Knowledge-First Epistemology?" presented by Patricia Rich (University of Hamburg).

Patricia Rich finished her Ph.D. in philosophy at Carnegie Mellon University, and she now works on an Emmy Noether project "Knowledge and Decision" headed by Moritz Schulz and funded by the German Research Foundation.

Abstract: The knowledge-first approach to epistemology paints a unified picture according to which knowledge is the norm of belief, assertion, and action. Placing knowledge in this position seems to set the bar very high -- perhaps too high -- because knowledge requires certainty, and agents are often faced with uncertainty. Notably, standard decision theory defines rational action partially as a product of probabilistic beliefs. The hypothesis of probabilistic knowledge, as defended by Sarah Moss, would provide a neat solution to this problem, but probabilistic knowledge faces problems of its own: most critically, a plausible factivity condition for probabilistic knowledge has yet to be specified. I provide a solution to these problems by translating probabilistic knowledge into a modified Kripke framework, which allows me to fill in the details of probabilistic knowledge in a sensible way. Part 1 of the talk explains the knowledge-first approach to epistemology. Part 2 presents the relevant aspects of probabilistic knowledge as defended by Moss, shows how it makes knowledge norms more compelling, and highlights some of the first hurdles it must clear. Part 3 shows the basic change needed to model probabilistic knowledge in a Kripke framework, and argues that probabilistic knowledge makes good sense when understood in this way.

The organization of the lecture is supported by the The Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports, program Progres Q21 "Research Seminars in Contemporary Epistemology".